Wealth inequality in the UK

From www.inequalitybriefing.org, an excellent visual overview of the state of inequality in the UK today.

Global wealth inequality -- what you never knew you never knew

From www.therules.org, an excellent brief overview of historical and contemporary global inequality.

A world of 11 billion?

For years I have been telling students that the world population is going to peak at 10 billion around 2050. Last year, following revised estimates from the UN Population Division, I qualified this by saying that global population might not even reach 10 billion. Turns out I was wrong! The latest estimates of the UN Population Division were released yesterday, including a great interactive tool. The 'median variant' estimate of world population in 2100 is now 10,853,849. In other words, I am going to have to start telling my students that the world population is going to peak at 11 billion. I can't pretend to understand the demographics behind this new estimate, but it will no doubt play into the hands of the doom-mongers who argue that the planet cannot support this population. In the United Kingdom, a one-man lecture/play recently ran at the Royal Court, a haven of experimental theatre, in which Stephen Emmott used statistics to argue that the world faces an "unprecedented planetary emergency". International development institutions feed into this narrative, arguing that world food production must increase by 100 per cent if we are going to feed the world in 2050, and that this means the further globalization of industrial agriculture. In Canada, the best-known neo-Malthusian is, without doubt, Thomas Homer-Dixon, who also argues that current population growth threatens to destroy the ecosystem, pollute the atmosphere, and change the climate.

So, now that my number is wrong, am I worried? The answer is yes, but not for the reasons that you might think. Let's start with the accuracy of the figures, given this recent revision. If the UN Population Division says that the population will peak at 11 billion, I believe them -- although it might be fewer. Why? Statistical demography is one of the most reliable quantitative tools in the social sciences. As Hans Rosling tweeted yesterday, in 1958 the Population Division estimated that by the year 2000 the global population would be 6.3 billion. In fact, the actual population was 6.12 billion. So, 42 years before the fact, the Population Division made an estimate that was only 3 per cent wrong. That's pretty impressive.

Next, what is most dramatic about global population growth today is the speed with which it is slowing down. To be precise: population is increasing, but the rate of growth of the rate of growth of the population is decreasing. In 1971 the global population rose by 2.1 per cent, the fastest single year in human history. However, 1971 was what one could call an 'inflection point': a 120 year population boom that started in 1850 came to an end, driven by the global expansion of capitalism and the need to create markets. The recurring crises of global capitalism that have been witnessed since the early 1970s have been mirrored in population, in that from 1971 on the rate of growth of global population has slowly come down. This morning I did a chart from the Population Division's estimates to demonstrate the decline, which I will use in IDST 1000Y next year:

As the chart shows, the slope of the curve is getting shallower and shallower -- this is the result of the decline in the rate of population growth. This reflects unambiguous good news: better health and fewer deaths have reduced the need to have more children. As Danny Dorling convincingly argues, we don't know for a fact why the rate of growth of population started to slow after 1971, but I would hypothesize that the dramatic expansion in reproductive health services around the world in the 1960s, which was driven by feminism and the women's movement, was a critical factor. Indeed, Hans Rosling tweeted yesterday a fact that has been remarkably overlooked in the world media today: that we have reached the point of the 'peak child'. What is the peak child? The world's population of children is currently estimated to be 1.9 billion. In around 15 years it will flatten out at 2 billion. Then it will start to decline, so that by 2100 there will be 1.9 billion children in the world. In other words, at the end of this century there will be no more children alive than are alive today. 

This reflects one of my three principal concerns about the growth in global population: that as the global population ages the need to provide for people living a longer life will be borne by the decreasing share of working-age people in the world. In other words, a critical demographic issue will not be the number of people but rather increasing numbers of non-working citizens having to be supported by decreasing numbers of working citizens. Japan has gone through this process for 2 decades, and for 2 decades has been mired in economic stagnation. Using the interactive tools of the Population Division it is possible to estimate when the planet's population will start to decline. However, even as populations decline there will be major changes in the structure of the planet's population. We have already passed the period in which the urban population has grown bigger than the rural population. We are indeed fortunate that we already produce enough food for 10 billion, and can feed a world of 11 billion agroecologically. However, a second change is of concern to me: and that is the shift in the structure of the planet's population towards Africa, the poorest continent. In 2030 Nigeria's population will exceed that of the United States, making it the third largest population in the world. The only continent where populations will continue to grow is Africa. In an era of more people not working, and fewer people working, Africa must become a critical source of workers for the global economy. My worry, then, is that politicians will continue to fail Africa, in terms of the education and healthcare needed for the sustainable human development upon which we will all rely. This highlights my third concern. Global inequalities must be addressed if Africa is to have the sustainable human development that allows it to reap its 'demographic dividend' of having the highest proportion of the world's population that is of working age. There are a billion people today who simply consume too much. I am one of them, as most likely are the readers of this weblog. We must consume less, and in so doing individually and collectively address the global inequalities that currently limit the capabilities of generations to come and which, if not addressed, have the potential to make a world of 11 billion even more unjust that the world today.

Adivasis against the land grab in Kashipur, India

This remarkable video, created by ActionAid India, highlights the struggles of adivasi people against land grabs in rural India. Their struggle has resulted in some action by the Indian state; but far more needs to be done.

Stuart Hall: Thatcherism

During the 1980s, living in England during the Thatcher years, one of the most profound influences on my intellectual development were the writings of Stuart Hall -- one of the original founders of New Left Review. Hall confronted the 1980s, to borrow from Gramsci, 'violently': unwilling to subscribe to old and outmoded shibboleths, his understanding of the rise of what we now call neoliberalism, but which he at the time called, more accurately, 'authoritarian populism', was accurate, accessible and prescient. I had the great privilege of hearing Stuart Hall speak several times (and met him on a couple of occasions). In this clip, based upon the reissuing of one of his key books, Policing the Crisis, Hall reflects upon the rise of Thatcherism and the implications for our understanding of the present. I cannot but reflect about how much I wish someone with his clarity, commitment, and intellectual rigor was helping us understand the current conjuncture, 'violently'.

Global wealth inequality

For the past 7 years I have commenced my first year course with a lecture on global poverty and world income inequality. I have just seen a fantastic short video that, in less than 4 minutes, explains visually what it usually takes me 20 minutes to explain. I will be definitely using it next year. It is well worth the look:

Food fight

This is an absolutely fantastic video on the food system: Go to the website, and you can download school curriculum materials as well.

7 photos that reveal what families eat in one week

This link is a followup by Oxfam America to a book of photo essays, Hungry Planet: What the World Eats by Peter Menzel and Faith D'Aluisio, both of which show global differences in weekly food consumption.

7 photos that reveal what families eat in one week

Stephen Resnick

On January 2nd, a brilliant economist, Stephen Resnick, one of the founding members and a cornerstone of the heterodox Economics Department at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, died. Professor Resnick touched the lives of hundreds of undergraduate and graduate students over his career, including myself; even though I never met him, when I used to teach economics I often referred to a book that he co-authored with his long-time collaborator Richard Wolff, Economics: Neoclassical versus Marxian. An early obituary, written by one of his former students from Umass, can be found at:

Stephen Resnick, professor of economics at UMass-Amherst, dies at age 74

In addition, Professor Resnick's complete Economics 305 course on Marxian Economics at UMass Amherst can be found on YouTube.  This first lecture is:



Stephen Resnick will be missed.

An excellent new short video on the food system from Oxfam International:

A life on hold

Omar is a 17 year old Somali living in a refugee camp in Tunisia.

A short film by Nick Francis and Marc Silver.

occupy your democracy

The single most important Robert Reich clip you can share today; it’s two minutes and sixteen seconds of pure common sense that you can share with everyone.

The Single Most Important Robert Reich Clip You Can Share Today

the case for an alternative economic strategy

Jayoti Ghosh is one of the best heterodox development economists working today. Here is her recent prescription for equitably fixing the global economy.

Putting growth in its place: Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze on India's political economy in the 21st century

This is an excellent article by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen on India's social and economic performance in the 21st century. It was first published in Outlook.

www.outlookindia.com | Putting Growth In Its Place

"Every 30 minutes": crushed by debt and neoliberal reforms, Indian farmers commit suicide at staggering rate

A quarter of a million Indian farmers have committed suicide in the last 16 years—an average of one suicide every 30 minutes. The crisis has ballooned with economic liberalization that has removed agricultural subsidies and opened Indian agriculture to the global market. Small farmers are often trapped in a cycle of insurmountable debt, leading many to take their lives out of sheer desperation. Democracy Now! speaks with Smita Narula of the Center for Human Rights and Global Justice at New York University Law School, co-author of an excellent new report on farmer suicides in India.



Thanks to Peter Mollinga for drawing my attention to this.

equals

It is International Women's Day. Here's the truth.



Thanks to Norah for passing this on.

How imaginary demand has made food prices more volatile

An excellent article on food price volatility by one of my former students.

How imaginary demand has made food prices more volatile

It is only a coincidence that I am interviewed!

the fall of the West's little dictator

An excellent analysis of the circumstances surrounding the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia by Esam Al-Amin:

Esam Al-Amin: The Fall of the West's Little Dictator

I'm mad

Take the 10 seconds needed to sign this petition. One billion hungry in the world is unacceptable.

1billionhungry.org

the rise of Canada's richest 1 per cent

This interesting paper from the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives shows how over a 90 year period there have been cycles in inequality in Canada, and that the most recent cycle demonstrates a marked sharpening of income inequality.

The Rise of Canada's Richest 1% | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives